Introduction
In a remarkable convergence of science and spirituality, some of the world's leading biologists gathered at the Vatican in 2017 for an urgent conference titled "Biological Extinction: How to Save the Natural World on Which We Depend." The setting—the historic Casina Pio IV in the Vatican Gardens—was an unlikely backdrop for discussions of mass extinction, fossil records, and biodiversity metrics. Yet this meeting of minds represented a profound recognition that the planetary crisis we face transcends traditional boundaries between science and religion, demanding a unified response 1 3 8 .
Species at risk of extinction by 2100 without intervention 3
Catholics worldwide potentially mobilized by Vatican leadership 2
The conference brought together experts like Neil Shubin from the University of Chicago, Peter Raven of the Missouri Botanical Garden, and economist Sir Partha Dasgupta from Cambridge University, all convened by the Pontifical Academy of Sciences 1 3 8 . Their dire warning: unless humanity changes course, we risk losing half of all species on Earth by the end of this century 3 . This gathering signaled the Vatican's deepening commitment to environmental issues under Pope Francis, whose 2015 encyclical Laudato Si' had already established ecological protection as a moral imperative for the world's 1.2 billion Catholics 2 .
The Sixth Extinction: Understanding the Crisis
Planet Earth has experienced five major extinction events throughout its 4.5-billion-year history, the most recent being the asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago 2 . These ancient catastrophes were driven by natural forces—asteroid strikes, volcanic eruptions, and gradual climate shifts. Today, however, scientists agree that we are likely entering a sixth mass extinction event, with one critical difference: this time, the primary cause is us 2 .
What Makes This Extinction Different
The current extinction crisis is unique in both its cause and its astonishing speed. Before the modern era, extinction occurred at what scientists call the "background rate"—approximately one to five species per year due to natural processes 2 . Today, that rate has accelerated dramatically to between 1,000 to 10,000 times the historical baseline 2 4 . To put this in perspective, we're losing species at a rate comparable to the recovery periods following previous mass extinctions, but with a crucial difference—those recoveries took millions of years, while the current devastation is happening within centuries 4 .
Extinction Rate Comparison
The statistics are staggering: approximately 25% of all species are currently threatened with extinction, a figure that could rise to 50% by 2100 if current trends continue 3 4 8 . This represents not just a loss of individual species but a fundamental unraveling of the "living fabric of the world," as the Pontifical Academy of Sciences described it 2 3 .
| Extinction Event | Time Period | Primary Cause | Estimated Species Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ordovician-Silurian | 443 million years ago | Global cooling & sea level drop | 85% of marine species |
| Late Devonian | 372 million years ago | Environmental changes | 75% of species |
| Permian-Triassic | 252 million years ago | Volcanic activity | 96% of marine species |
| Triassic-Jurassic | 201 million years ago | Volcanic activity | 80% of species |
| Cretaceous-Paleogene | 66 million years ago | Asteroid impact | 75% of species, including dinosaurs |
| Current Extinction | Present & Projected | Human activity | Up to 50% by 2100 (projected) |
A Scientific Gathering at the Vatican
The 2017 conference represented a significant moment in the often-complicated relationship between science and religion. As biologist Neil Shubin noted, he participated because "when you think about impact of the Catholic Church on pressing problems, with more than 1.2 billion Catholics around the world, there are few institutions that cut across different parts of the world the way the church does" 1 . This practical recognition of the Church's global reach highlighted the potential for mobilizing action across cultural and national boundaries.
The workshop focused not just on documenting the crisis but on exploring viable solutions. Presentations covered a wide range of topics, from the deep history of extinctions to contemporary case studies of community-led conservation efforts in China and South America 1 . Scientists discussed how agricultural lands, often seen as threats to biodiversity, could be managed to maintain ecological diversity, particularly at the interface between farmland and natural habitats 1 .
Perhaps most importantly, the conference framed biological extinction as both an ecological and social justice issue. The participants noted that "the richest 19% of the world's people use well over half of the world's resources," making wealth inequality a central factor in both environmental degradation and potential solutions 6 8 .
Conference Focus Areas
- Historical extinction patterns
- Community conservation
- Sustainable agriculture
- Social justice dimensions
- Wealth inequality impacts
The Baseline Experiment: Reading the Fossil Record
How do scientists know that current extinction rates are unprecedented? The answer lies in sophisticated analysis of the fossil record—a natural historical archive that provides critical baselines for understanding modern biodiversity loss.
Methodology: A Step-by-Step Approach
1. Fossil Collection and Analysis
Paleontologists like University of Chicago's Susan Kidwell examine fossils from various time periods—10,000, 50,000, and even millions of years ago—to establish patterns of species presence and disappearance before significant human impact 1 .
2. Molecular Phylogenetics
Researchers like Stuart Pimm of Duke University use genetic comparisons between existing species to calculate historical rates of species formation and loss. By measuring how long it takes for species to diverge genetically, they can estimate how frequently species have appeared and disappeared throughout evolutionary history 4 .
3. Comparative Metrics
Scientists then compare current extinction data against these historical baselines. The fossil record reveals that recovery after previous mass extinctions took millions of years, providing a sobering reference point for the long-term consequences of current trends 4 .
Results and Analysis
The data reveals several alarming patterns. First, the current extinction rate is approximately 1,000 times higher than the historical norm 4 8 . Second, this acceleration began correlating with the expansion of human populations and activities. Third, unlike past mass extinctions driven by external forces, the current crisis is directly tied to human activities, including habitat destruction, pollution, overfishing, and climate change 2 .
| Driver | Impact on Biodiversity | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Habitat Destruction | Removes specialized environments species depend on | Deforestation, urban expansion |
| Climate Change | Alters ecosystems faster than species can adapt | Coral bleaching, polar habitat loss |
| Overexploitation | Directly reduces populations beyond recovery | Overfishing, poaching |
| Pollution | Contaminates air, water, and soil | Pesticides, plastic waste |
| Invasive Species | Outcompetes native species | Introduced predators, plants |
The Scientist's Toolkit: Key Research Methods
Understanding and addressing the extinction crisis requires specialized approaches and tools. Here are some of the key methods scientists use to study and combat biological extinction:
Fossil Record Analysis
Provides historical baseline extinction rates for comparing current patterns 1
Molecular Phylogenetics
Maps evolutionary relationships to calculate natural species formation and loss rates 4
Population Monitoring
Tracks species numbers and distributions to identify at-risk ecosystems 3
Genetic Analysis
Assesses genetic diversity to understand resilience to environmental changes 1
Satellite Imaging
Monitors habitat changes over time to track ecosystem fragmentation 3
| Tool/Method | Primary Function | Application in Extinction Research |
|---|---|---|
| Fossil Record Analysis | Provides historical baseline extinction rates | Comparing current extinction rates with prehistoric patterns 1 |
| Molecular Phylogenetics | Maps evolutionary relationships between species | Calculating natural rates of species formation and loss 4 |
| Population Monitoring | Tracks species numbers and distributions | Identifying at-risk species and ecosystems 3 |
| Genetic Analysis | Assesses genetic diversity within populations | Understanding resilience to environmental changes 1 |
| Satellite Imaging | Monitors habitat changes over time | Tracking deforestation, urban expansion, and ecosystem fragmentation 3 |
| Protected Area Management | Shields critical habitats from human impact | Creating marine reserves and terrestrial sanctuaries 6 8 |
Why Biodiversity Matters: More Than Just Lost Beauty
The loss of species represents far more than just the disappearance of charismatic animals like tigers and rhinos. As the Vatican workshop emphasized, biological diversity provides essential services that sustain human civilization 3 .
Ecosystem Services
Intact ecosystems purify our air and water, regulate climate, pollinate crops, and cycle nutrients through soil. The financial value of these services is estimated to be roughly twice the global GDP, yet they operate outside our economic accounting systems 3 .
Resilience and Adaptation
Diverse ecosystems are better able to withstand environmental stresses like climate change, diseases, and natural disasters. Each species lost represents a reduction in our planet's capacity to adapt to changing conditions 1 .
"We're not just stewards, we're part of this. If biodiversity drops, we pay a price. We depend vitally on plants, and biodiversity helps sustains us."
Pathways to Solutions: From Diagnosis to Action
Despite the grim statistics, the Vatican conference focused strongly on solutions, leaving participant Neil Shubin "a little more cheerful than I was on the first day" 1 . Several key strategies emerged:
Addressing Root Causes
Conference participants identified several interconnected approaches to slowing extinction rates:
Wealth Redistribution and Poverty Alleviation
Since extreme poverty drives environmental destruction in some regions, while overconsumption by the wealthy drives it in others, addressing economic inequality is essential. The workshop noted that ending extreme poverty would cost less than 1% of the combined income of the richest countries 6 8 .
Sustainable Agricultural Innovation
Properly managed farmlands can maintain significant biodiversity, especially at the edges where agriculture meets natural habitats. The conference highlighted successful case studies from China and South America 1 .
Technology and Efficiency
From smart city design to carefully regulated genetic modifications of crops, technology has a role to play in reducing humanity's ecological footprint 1 . As Shubin noted, "it would be irresponsible to write [GMOs] off when you have technology that could improve human welfare" 1 .
The Vatican's Ongoing Commitment
The 2017 conference was not an isolated event but part of the Vatican's broader commitment to environmental issues. In 2025, this commitment continues through projects like the environmental and energy sustainability initiative for the Papal Basilica of Saint Peter, aimed at achieving net zero emissions for the historic complex 7 . Cardinal Mauro Gambetti described this as a form of activism that is "more proactive than oppositional"—a concrete embodiment of the principles outlined in Laudato Si' 7 .
"Environmental justice can no longer be regarded as an abstract concept or a distant goal but is rather a matter of justice—social, economic and human. For believers, it is a duty born of faith."
A Continuing Legacy
A decade after Pope Francis's groundbreaking encyclical Laudato Si', the Vatican's engagement with the extinction crisis continues to evolve, blending scientific evidence with moral imperative. The 2017 biological extinction conference represented a significant moment in this journey—a recognition that saving the natural world requires bridging the ancient divide between science and religion.
The challenge ahead remains enormous. As Peter Raven noted at the conference, "The extinctions we face pose an even greater threat to civilization than climate change—for the simple reason they are irreversible" 3 . Yet the collaborative spirit of the Vatican workshop offers a template for addressing this crisis through what economist Partha Dasgupta called "putting the problem of biological extinctions in a social context" 3 .
In the end, the Vatican's engagement with biological extinction reflects a profound understanding that the crisis is not merely scientific or environmental, but fundamentally human. As the final communiqué of the conference stated: "To solve our common dilemma, we must learn to love one another, to collaborate and to build bridges throughout the world to a degree that has not been imagined previously" 6 8 . The survival of Earth's breathtaking diversity of life may depend on whether humanity can rise to this challenge.
Key Takeaways
- Extinction is an ethical and spiritual issue
- Science and faith must collaborate
- Social justice is integral to solutions
- Global cooperation is essential
- The Vatican continues its environmental leadership